Use of Hybrid Causal Logic Method for Preliminary Hazard Analysis of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships

Recently, the safety issue of maritime autonomous surface ships (MASS) has become a hot topic. Preliminary hazard analysis MASS can assist ship design and ensure safe reliable operation. However, since technology is still at its early stage, there are not enough data for comprehensive analysis. Hence, this paper attempts to combine conventional experiments conduct preliminary autonomy level III using hybrid causal logic (HCL) method. Firstly, hazardous scenario developed event sequence diagram (ESD). Furthermore, fault tree (FT) method utilized analyze mechanical events in ESD. The involving human factors related ESD analyzed Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Finally, accident probability calculated practice through historical test with both an remote navigation mode Wuhan Nanjing, China. Moreover, key influence found, accident-causing chains identified, thus providing reference assessment process. This process applied ship.